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Factors affecting the price trend of precision seamless stainless steel pipe

Author: Dagang precision tube time: August 3, 2016

 Factors affecting the price trend of precision seamless stainless steel pipe

As the saying goes, no matter how rich people are, they are also worried about money. Precision seamless stainless steel manufacturers are no exception, can understand the price trend is essential. There are four reasons that affect the price trend of precision seamless stainless steel pipe, which are the current economic situation, the large demand capacity and the large amount of capital flow.

   Domestic economic environment

According to authoritative analysis, China's economic growth will be stable and slow down, and the favorable aspects of domestic economic growth include the policy of "stable growth and keeping the lower limit" continuously playing a positive role, enterprises carrying out appropriate inventory replenishment, and foreign demand will remain stable. However, the tight source of capital for infrastructure projects, the sharp decline in the growth rate of newly started real estate areas and land purchase areas, the slow resolution of overcapacity, the inhibition of the recovery of manufacturing industry, and the high base number in the same period of last year restrict the economy. For the key industries of steel demand, real estate and manufacturing industry, due to the continuous decline of house prices in the third and fourth tier cities, the growth rate of real estate investment has declined significantly. In the manufacturing industry, due to the existence of seasonal factors, it is difficult to make substantial improvement.

   International economic environment

Although the reduction of QE policy in the U.S. continues to be delayed, the future market expectation will be strengthened, and the international working capital may be reversed again. The market will face the pattern of appreciation of US dollar, downturn of securities and other financial markets, and rising borrowing costs. As a result, prices of bulk commodities including precision seamless stainless steel tubes fell. For the euro area, considering the political and economic situation of the core countries, economic growth may slow down in the fourth quarter. And the euro zone economies are suffering from fiscal tightening, and the economies of non core countries will continue to face structural problems. On the whole, the price uncertainty of precision seamless stainless steel tube is large, and the most optimistic estimate is still to maintain a weak growth state.

   The rise of supply pressure

On the one hand, the output is too high. Since February this year, the daily output of precision seamless stainless steel pipe has been maintained at more than 2 million tons for a long time. Especially since April, the daily output has been more than 2.1 million tons in almost five months. Compared with January September of the whole year, the output was nearly 200000 tons / day, with an increase of more than 10.5%. However, based on the current raw material prices and spot prices, and considering the pressure of time and market, it is unlikely that large-scale production reduction will occur. On the other hand, the market inventory of precision seamless stainless steel pipe began to rebound. Since the middle of September, affected by the price decline of precision seamless steel pipe, the market inventory of reducing positions for 25 consecutive weeks has changed from decrease to increase. According to past experience, after September and October, the market inventory of precision seamless steel pipe will drop sharply, but this year it may lag behind and the speed of reduction will slow down. This will put great pressure on the market with low demand.

   Shortage of funds

All industries are faced with sales pressure, payment pressure, in the final analysis, that is, capital pressure. The strength of bank lending has been weakened, and the strength of collecting loans has been strengthened. Structural problems in the financial market remain prominent. In addition, with the gradual cleaning up and standardization of local debts, capital sources such as infrastructure projects will become increasingly tense

On the whole, the price trend of precision seamless stainless steel tube is not optimistic. The market is suppressed by various problems such as shrinking demand, huge output, rising inventory and shortage of funds. The market trend will be extended in the form of "V"

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